Minute Resolution Multi-Area Wind Power Simulation To Estimate Future Reserve Needs

Increasing penetration of wind power poses challenges to power system balancing due to the uncertainty and variability of wind power generation. In wind integration studies, it is hence important to consider the need of balancing power caused by wind power. In this paper, we propose a model to simulate minute resolution wind power time series in multi-area power systems, that allows for estimation of the additional need of reserves caused by WP in future scenarios. The model is based on first simulating forecast uncertainty using a multidimensional autoregressive moving average model, and then simulating the variability by adding an autoregressive time series to a cubic spline interpolation. The model is found to generate scenarios of minute resolution wind power generation that are sufficiently realistic for long-term scenario studies. The model output can be used for analysing future reserve requirements or for scenario generation for stochastic optimisation of future power systems.