2023 IEEE Belgrade PowerTech

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Vehicle-To-Grid Plug-In Forecast To Aid Aggregator Participation In Ancillary Services Markets

Electric vehicle (EV) charge points (CPs) can be used by aggregators to provide frequency response services. Aggregators must have day-ahead forecasts of aggregate vehicle-to-grid (V2G) plug-in to produce meaningful bids for the day-ahead ancillary services market. However, there is a lack of understanding on what features should be considered and how complex the forecasting model should be. This paper explores the dependency of aggregate V2G plug-in on historic plug-in levels, calendar variables, and weather conditions. These investigations are used to develop three day-ahead forecasts of minimum aggregate V2G plug-in during 30-minute window. A neural network that considers previous V2G plug-in values the day before, three days before, and seven days before, in addition to day of the week, month, and hour, is found to be the most accurate.

Jemima Graham
Imperial College London
United Kingdom

Evelyn Heylen
Centrica Business Solutions

Fei Teng
Imperial College London
United Kingdom


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