Investigating Systemic Extrapolation of Distribution Grid Investment Costs

The impact of the additional integration of distributed energy sources or electrification of the heat and mobility sector on the distribution grids is analysed by numerous distribution grid studies. However, these studies use extrapolation techniques that impact the results. In this paper, we investigate the influence of commonly used extrapolation methods under consideration of various clustering parameterizations on the results of distribution grid studies. To achieve this, we present a method for the systemic extrapolation of distribution grid investment costs by identifying representative regions, assigning individual grid models, analysing the expansion needs and finally using different extrapolation methods to analyse the range of extrapolated investment costs to the area of interest. In our results, we apply the method to a study scenario and compare the extrapolated results to show the relevance of the choice of extrapolation method.